Impi emnyama ezungeze imboni ye-semiconductor iqhubekile kusukela kulo nyaka.Ekupheleni kukaNovemba, amazwe e-EU avumile ukwaba ama-euro angaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-40 ukuthuthukisa umthamo wokukhiqiza we-semiconductor we-EU.Uhlelo lwe-EU ukukhulisa isabelo sokukhiqiza ama-chip emhlabeni sisuka ku-10% siye ku-20% ngo-2030.
Hhayi kwaqondana, uma sekubusa emkhakheni we-semiconductor yesekethe edidiyelwe, iJapan nayo ayikaze ibe nesizungu, ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, iToyota, Denso, Sony, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT), Japan Electric (NEC), Softbank, Armor Man, I-Mitsubishi UFJ Bank isungule ngokuhlanganyela inkampani ye-chip process i-Rapidus, ihlela ukuzuza ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi kwama-chips angaphansi kwama-nanometer angu-2 ngo-2027. Njenge-chip yokuqala enkulu edidiyelwe ye-semiconductor yesifunda, i-United States ekulawuleni amaphuzu aphezulu e-chip technology ayikhathazeki, isayinwe Ngo-Agasti kulo nyaka ukusebenzisa i-"Chip and Science Act", kuzoba usizo olukhulu ekwakhiweni komhlaba wonke kwe-high-end integrated circuit semiconductor chip industry siphon effect, okwamanje, i-Samsung, i-TSMC ikhethe ukwakha izimboni e-United States. , ikakhulukazi eqondise ubuchwepheshe be-chip ngaphansi kwama-nanometer angu-5.
Umncintiswano wokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke waphinde waqala ukushuba, iShayina ayikwazi ukumane ibe isibukeli.Iqiniso liwukuthi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, imboni ye-semiconductor yaseChina icindezelwa kakhulu izimbangi, kodwa futhi iphinde igqamise ukubaluleka kokulawula okuzimele kwe-semiconductor supply chain.Inqwaba yezinkampani zamandla ezithengisa amandla zithe zinethemba eliqinile mayelana namathemba okuthuthukiswa kokushintshwa kwendawo kwe-semiconductor eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, ephakamisa ukuthi abatshalizimali bagxile ezindaweni ezibalulekile ezifana nemishini, izinto zokwakha kanye nokupakishwa nokuhlola kuthrekhi yendawo.
Imishini ekhuphukayo: inqubo yokwenza okwasendaweni iyashesha
Ekuthuthukisweni okusheshayo kwemboni ye-semiconductor yasekhaya kanye nokushayela okubili kwezinqubomgomo zikazwelonke, abakhiqizi bemishini ye-semiconductor yasekhaya ngakolunye uhlangothi, baqhubeka nokwandisa izigaba zemikhiqizo, futhi kancane kancane baphule ukuzimela kwabakhiqizi bangaphandle;ngakolunye uhlangothi, kancane kancane uthuthukise ukusebenza komkhiqizo, futhi kancane kancane ungene emakethe yezinga eliphezulu.Nakuba imishini ye-semiconductor yokusheshisa inqubo yokwenza indawo, kodwa ukushintshwa kwasekhaya kusesesigabeni sokuqala, kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule umjikelezo wemboni.
Umhlaziyi we-Pacific Securities uLiu Guoqing wabonisa ukuthi, ngokusho kohlobo lwemishini, nakuba imishini yokubopha ifinyelele ngokuyisisekelo endaweni, kodwa ku-CMP, i-PVD, i-etching, ukwelashwa kokushisa nezinye izici zezinga lendawo liphansi, kuyilapho ku-photolithography. , imishini yokuthuthukisa ukumboza kulesi sigaba kuphela ukuze kuzuzwe impumelelo kusuka ku-0 kuye ku-1. Ngakho-ke, lilonke, izinga lendawo lisenendawo eyengeziwe yokuthuthukiswa, ikakhulukazi e-United States ngokusebenzisa "Umthetho We-Chip Nesayensi" kanye nenqubomgomo yasekhaya. Izinga lokukhulisa utshalomali emkhakheni we-semiconductor, sikholelwa ukuthi kundikimba ethi "downstream to downstream + domestic replacement", abakhiqizi bempahla yasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi bakhuphuke ngesivinini.
Ngokombono wezinto eziyisisekelo zezinkampani ezisohlwini lwemishini ye-semiconductor yasekhaya, ukusebenza kwezingxenye ezintathu zokuqala zemboni yemishini ye-semiconductor ka-2022 kwaqala ukusheshisa ukukhula, isamba sokukhula kwemali engenayo yemboni ngama-65% unyaka nonyaka;ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo yemboni nayo iyaqhubeka nokuba ngcono.Izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zokuqala zesilinganiso senzuzo edonswa embonini ye-semiconductor engu-19.0%, 2017 kuze kube manje unyaka nonyaka ibalulekile;ngesikhathi esifanayo, imishini yasekhaya semiconductor ezisohlwini izinkampani oda ngokuvamile ukukhula okusezingeni eliphezulu.
Ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe esikhundleni se-semiconductor yindikimba eyinhloko.U-Yang Shaohui, umhlaziyi kwa-Everbright Securities, uncoma abatshalizimali ukuthi banake abakhiqizi bemishini yokulinganisa i-semiconductor SMIC, Shengmei Shanghai, North Huachuang, Core Source Micro, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Wanye Enterprise, Precision Measurement Electronics, Tianjun Technology, Huaxing Yuchuang , i-Delonghi Laser, kanye ne-Lightforce Technology.
Izinto zokwakha ezimaphakathi: ukungena esikhathini sokuthuthukiswa kwegolide
Okwezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor, nakuba umthethosivivinywa we-chip wase-US uqinise imikhawulo ezindaweni zenqubo ethuthukisiwe yaseChina, kodwa i-China yenze inqubekelaphambili ebaluleke kakhulu emkhakheni wezinto eziphathelene nenqubo ehlobene nenqubo ye-semiconductor, izinkampani zezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi zenze iluphu yempendulo enhle ngemuva kokuthola okuqhubekayo. ama-oda, athembele ekungeneni kwezimali okusimeme ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukwanda kwamandla omkhiqizo we-semiconductor ekhona kanye nesizukulwane esisha sezinto ze-semiconductor Ukuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo.
Umhlaziyi we-Guangda Securities, u-Zhao Naidi, uveze ukuthi enkambweni yokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke, ukwethulwa kwemithetho enjalo noma izinqubomgomo e-United States akubambi iqhaza ekuthuthukisweni kokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke, kodwa kunalokho kusheshisa ukuthuthukiswa kokuhlukana kwezimboni ezihlobene.Kudingeka futhi sisheshise ukuze sivale igebe phakathi kweShayina kwezinye izindawo ezibalulekile kanye nezinga elithuthukile emhlabeni wonke.
Njengamanje, izinga lokwenziwa kwasendaweni kwempahla yokukhiqiza isemiconductor yasekhaya cishe liyi-10%, lincike kakhulu ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe.Njengamanje, i-China nayo yenza imizamo emikhulu yokweseka ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kwemboni yentamo yekhadi, futhi abakhiqizi bethu bempahla ye-semiconductor basheshise inqubekelaphambili yokushintshwa kwendawo.Emkhakheni wamasekethe adidiyelwe, ukusheshiswa kokushintshwa kwendawo, ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bezimboni kanye nokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo kazwelonke yezimboni nokunye ukusekelwa okuhle okuningi, izinkampani zasekhaya ze-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi zilethe isikhathi sokuthuthukiswa kwegolide, uchungechunge lwezimboni lwamabhizinisi aphezulu kulindeleke ukuthi ihole ekuzuzeni.
Ama-wafer fabs asanda kwakhiwa azoba inkundla yempi enkulu yezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor yasendaweni ukwandisa isabelo sazo.Umhlaziyi wezokuphepha u-Hu Yang uveze ukuthi isikhathi esisha samanje sokukhiqizwa kwendwangu enkulu saqala ngo-2022-2024, enquma ukuthi isikhathi sewindi legolide sizoqhubeka iminyaka emi-2-3, okuyisona sikhathi esingcono kakhulu sokuthi amabhizinisi athathe indawo yezinto zokwakha ze-semiconductor ekhaya. .Kunconywa ukuthi abatshalizimali bagxile ku-Jingrui Electric Material, Powerful New Material, Nanda Optoelectronics, Jacques Technology, Jianghua Micro, Juhua, Haohua Technology, Huatech Gas, Shanghai Xinyang, njll.
Ukupakishwa nokuhlola okuya phansi: isabelo semakethe siyaqhubeka nokukhula
Ukupakishwa kwe-IC nokuhlola kutholakala ezansi nochungechunge lwezimboni, olungahlukaniswa ngezigaba ezimbili: ukupakisha nokuhlola.Ngaphansi komkhuba wokuthuthukiswa kochwepheshe kanye nokwehlukaniswa kwabasebenzi embonini ye-IC, ama-oda amaningi okupakisha e-IC kanye nokuhlola azogeleza avela kubakhiqizi bendabuko be-IDM, okuvuna ukupakisha nokuhlola amabhizinisi aphansi.
Eminye imithombo yezimboni iveza ukuthi eminyakeni yamuva nje, abakhiqizi basekhaya bebelokhu beqongelela ngokushesha ubuchwepheshe bokupakisha obuphambili ngokuhlanganiswa nokuthengwa, futhi inkundla yobuchwepheshe iye yavunyelaniswa ngokuyisisekelo nabakhiqizi baphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi ingxenye yokupakishwa okuthuthukile kwamaShayina emhlabeni ikhula kancane kancane.Ngokumelene nesizinda sezinqubomgomo zasekhaya ezisekela ukupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe, ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kokupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe kwasekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi likhule ngokushesha esikhathini esizayo.Ngaso leso sikhathi, ngaphansi kwesizinda sokungqubuzana kwezohwebo phakathi kweChina ne-US, isidingo sokushintshwa kwasekhaya sinamandla, isabelo sabaholi bokufaka basekhaya sizokhula, futhi abakhiqizi basekhaya bamaphakheji basenenzuzo enkulu yenzuzo.
Ngokukhuthazwa kokudluliswa kwemboni ye-semiconductor, inzuzo yezindleko zezabasebenzi kanye nokuthandwa kwentela, umthamo wokupakisha we-IC womhlaba wonke uya ngokuya ushintshela esifundeni sase-Asia Pacific futhi imboni igcina ukukhula okuqhubekayo.Ngokwemininingwane yezikhungo ezihlobene, izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lemakethe yokupakisha ye-IC yaseChina libe phezulu kakhulu kuneyomhlaba wonke iminyaka engaphezu kwe-10;abathintwe yilolu bhubhane, amaketanga amaningi okuhlinzekwa kwama-semiconductors omhlaba ayaqhubeka nokuqina noma ukuphazamiseka ngesikhathi sodlame, futhi ukunikezwa kuyaqhubeka nokuba nzinyana noma ukuphazamiseka ngesikhathi sodlame, kuhambisana nesidingo esinamandla sezimoto zamandla ezintsha eziwela phansi, i-AioT kanye ne-AR/VR. njll., ama-semiconductor foundries amaningi anomthamo omkhulu wokusetshenziswa.Ngokusekelwe ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla okuqinile kanye nokuqhubekayo okulindelwe yisidingo esikhulu esimweni salolu bhubhane, izindleko ezinkulu zabakhiqizi bomhlaba wonke be-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziqinile futhi abakhiqizi bamaphakheji aphansi kulindeleke ukuthi bahlomule ngokugcwele.
Umhlaziyi we-Dongguan Securities uLiu Menglin uveze ukuthi i-China inokuncintisana okuqinile kwasekhaya ekupakisheni nasekuhloleni, futhi inethemba lokuthuthuka kwenzuzo elethwa ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kokupakishwa okuthuthukile embonini ngaphansi kwesizinda se-boom ephezulu esikhathini eside.Kunconywa ukuthi unake i-Changdian Technology, i-Huatian Technology, i-Tongfu Microelectronics, i-Jingfang Technology namanye amabhizinisi ahlobene.
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Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-17-2022